It hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for Arkansas and Mizzou since conference play began, but if nothing else, we can expect these two teams to pile up points. We’re backing the Over — read more in our college basketball betting picks below.
The No. 25 Arkansas Razorbacks face off against the Missouri Tigers in NCAA basketball action on Wednesday night.
The Razorbacks have tumbled down the rankings after losing four of their last five games. The only team they beat within that span was Mizzou two weeks ago and the Tigers will look to get revenge on their home floor tonight.
College basketball odds opened with the Tigers as slim 1.5-point home faves and the Over/Under at 153.5. Check out my college basketball picks for Arkansas vs. Missouri below.
Arkansas vs Missouri best odds
Arkansas vs Missouri picks and predictions
These teams combined for a modest 142 points when they faced off two weeks ago, but I’m expecting a much higher-scoring game this time around. Both squads like to pace the pace with their guards with Arkansas 55th in the country in adjusted tempo and Missouri 39th.
The Tigers have been held below 70 points in three of their last four games but those contests all came on the road where they have struggled to knock down shots. This is still a team that ranks 10th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom and they average 90 points per game on 50.8% shooting at home.
The Razorbacks had been stingy on defense for most of the year but have struggled lately, surrendering 84 points to Alabama and 97 points to Vanderbilt in their last two games.
A week ago, the Razorbacks were 24th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage by holding foes to 29% shooting from beyond the arc. However, they’ve allowed opponents to shoot 50% from beyond the arc in their last two games and now face a Mizzou side that is 28th in the country with 9.2 made threes per game.
Missouri allows opponents to shoot 51.5% from inside the arc, which ranks just 241st in the country, and that number has surged to 58.2% in their last three games. The Tigers don’t have the length to defend well inside against a Razorbacks squad that shoots a sizzling 54.3% from 2-point range.
My best bet: Over 153.5 (-110 at bet365)
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Arkansas vs Missouri spread analysis
Both of these schools cruised through their non-conference schedule with just a single loss but have struggled in SEC play. Missouri has three of its last four games and is coming off a 73-64 loss to Florida in Gainesville.
The Tigers also lost 74-68 on the road against Arkansas two weeks ago in a game where they led by as many as 17 points in the first half. They shot 44% from the floor in that contest while allowing the Razorbacks to shoot 48%, but their biggest problems were on the glass with Arkansas boasting a 40-24 edge in rebounds.
That victory against Mizzou was the Razorbacks’ only win in their last five games and they’ve gone 0-5 ATS during that span. They have lost three straight contests by double digits and most recently fell to Vanderbilt on the road by a score of 97-84.
That was a brutal defensive display by Eric Musselman’s squad, which sent the Commodores to the free throw line 36 times, allowed them to shoot 56% from long range, and only forced eight turnovers.
Losing big man Trevon Brazille (11.8 ppg and a team-high 6.0 rebounds per game) to a season-ending injury in early December has been a blow to Arkansas. Meanwhile, freshman guard Nick Smith (12.8ppg), who was the No. 1 recruit in the country according to 247Sports, has been out indefinitely with a knee injury since the start of conference play.
Both of these teams do a very good job of forcing turnovers with the Tigers third in the country in opponent turnover rate (25.2%) and the Razorbacks 30th (22%). However, Missouri is significantly better at not giving the ball away and ranks 34th in turnover rate.
The Tigers have a small lineup and are just 321st in the country in average height, which has led to them ranking 329th in rebound rate. The Razorbacks are 10th in average height and 43rd in rebound rate. If Arkansas can kill Mizzou on the glass again, it might not matter if the Tigers shoot better at home.
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Arkansas vs Missouri Over/Under analysis
The Razorbacks are coming off a game against Vandy where they combined for a whopping 181 points but they have generally been playing in lower-scoring games lately. They had averaged just 64.8 ppg in their previous four games and the Under was 5-0-1 in their previous six contests.
The losses of Smith and Brazille have hurt their offense, putting a lot of pressure on Ricky Council IV to carry the load.
Council leads the Razorbacks with 18.3 points per game while five-star freshman Anthony Black averages 12.4 ppg and a team-high 3.6 assists per game. Guard Davonte Davis has dropped 16 and 17 points in the last two games and the Razorbacks will need him to contribute consistently.
Mizzou has four double-digit scorers led by Kobe Brown (15.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 55.7 FG%) and D’Moi Hodge (14.9 ppg, 2.6 spg, 39.3 3PT%).
Even with their recent scoring slump, the Tigers rank third in the country with 84.4 ppg and have cashed the Over in their last six games at home.
Arkansas vs Missouri betting trend to know
The Over is 25-11 in the Razorbacks’ last 36 road games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Arkansas.
Arkansas vs Missouri game info
|Location:||Mizzou Arena, Columbia, MO|
|Date:||Wednesday, January 18, 2023|
|Tip-off:||9:00 p.m. ET|